The kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 viremia in COVID-19 patients receiving remdesivir.

Detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in serum, viremia, has been linked to disease severity and outcome. The kinetics of viremia in patients receiving remdesivir has not been thoroughly studied and could help predict treatment response and outcome. We investigated the kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 viremia and factors associated with baseline viremia, viral clearance and 30-day mortality in patients receiving remdesivir. An observational study including 378 hospitalised patients (median age 67 years, 67% male) sampled with serum SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR within ± 24 h of initiation of remdesivir treatment. Baseline viremia was present in 206 (54%) patients with a median Ct value of 35.3 (IQR = 33.3-37.1). In patients with baseline viremia, the estimated probability of viral clearance was 72% by day 5. Ct values decreased significantly during remdesivir treatment for viremic patients, indicating an increase in viral load. In total, 44 patients (12%) died within 30 days, and mortality was significantly associated with viremia at baseline (OR = 2.45, p = 0.01) and lack of viral clearance by day 5 (OR = 4.8, p = < 0.01). Viral clearance was not associated with any individual risk factor. Viremia appears to be a prognostic marker before and during remedesivir treatment. The resolution of viremia was similar to patients not receiving remdesivir in other studies, and the decrease in Ct values during treatment questions the antiviral capacity of remdesivir in vivo. Prospective studies are warranted to confirm our findings.

Factors associated with viral rebound among COVID-19 patients receiving oral antivirals.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 rebound is usually reported among patients experiencing concurrent symptomatic and viral rebound. But longitudinal viral RT-PCR results from early stage to rebound of COVID-19 was less characterized. Further, identifying the factors associated with viral rebound after nirmatrelvir-ritonavir (NMV/r) and molnupiravir may expand understanding of COVID-19 rebound. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed clinical data and sequential viral RT-PCR results from COVID-19 patients receiving oral antivirals between April and May, 2022. Viral rebound was defined by the degree of viral load increase (ΔCt ≥ 5 units). RESULTS: A total of 58 and 27 COVID-19 patients taking NMV/r and molnupiravir, respectively, were enrolled. Patients receiving NMV/r were younger, had fewer risk factors for disease progression and faster viral clearance rate compared to those receiving molnupiravr (All P < 0.05). The overall proportion of viral rebound (n = 11) was 12.9%, which was more common among patients receiving NMV/r (10 [17.2%] vs. 1 [3.7%], P = 0.16). Of them, 5 patients experienced symptomatic rebound, suggesting the proportion of COVID-19 rebound was 5.9%. The median interval to viral rebound was 5.0 (interquartile range, 2.0-8.0) days after completion of antivirals. Initial lymphopenia (<0.8 × 109/L) was associated with viral rebound among overall population (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 5.34; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.33-21.71), and remained significant (aOR, 4.50; 95% CI, 1.05-19.25) even when patients receiving NMV/r were considered. CONCLUSION: Our data suggest viral rebound after oral antivirals may be more commonly observed among lymphopenic individuals in the context of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2 variant.

Quantifying the impact of immune history and variant on SARS-CoV-2 viral kinetics and infection rebound: A retrospective cohort study.

Background: The combined impact of immunity and SARS-CoV-2 variants on viral kinetics during infections has been unclear. Methods: We characterized 1,280 infections from the National Basketball Association occupational health cohort identified between June 2020 and January 2022 using serial RT-qPCR testing. Logistic regression and semi-mechanistic viral RNA kinetics models were used to quantify the effect of age, variant, symptom status, infection history, vaccination status and antibody titer to the founder SARS-CoV-2 strain on the duration of potential infectiousness and overall viral kinetics. The frequency of viral rebounds was quantified under multiple cycle threshold (Ct) value-based definitions. Results: Among individuals detected partway through their infection, 51.0% (95% credible interval [CrI]: 48.3-53.6%) remained potentially infectious (Ct <30) 5 days post detection, with small differences across variants and vaccination status. Only seven viral rebounds (0.7%; N=999) were observed, with rebound defined as 3+days with Ct <30 following an initial clearance of 3+days with Ct ≥30. High antibody titers against the founder SARS-CoV-2 strain predicted lower peak viral loads and shorter durations of infection. Among Omicron BA.1 infections, boosted individuals had lower pre-booster antibody titers and longer clearance times than non-boosted individuals. Conclusions: SARS-CoV-2 viral kinetics are partly determined by immunity and variant but dominated by individual-level variation. Since booster vaccination protects against infection, longer clearance times for BA.1-infected, boosted individuals may reflect a less effective immune response, more common in older individuals, that increases infection risk and reduces viral RNA clearance rate. The shifting landscape of viral kinetics underscores the need for continued monitoring to optimize isolation policies and to contextualize the health impacts of therapeutics and vaccines. Funding: Supported in part by CDC contract #200-2016-91779, a sponsored research agreement to Yale University from the National Basketball Association contract #21-003529, and the National Basketball Players Association.

No effect of remdesivir or betamethasone on upper respiratory tract SARS-CoV-2 RNA kinetics in hospitalised COVID-19 patients: a retrospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: The viral kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 has been considered clinically important. While remdesivir and corticosteroids are recommended for COVID-19 patients requiring oxygen support, there is a limited number of published reports on viral kinetics in hospitalised patients with COVID-19 treated with remdesivir or corticosteroids. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study by collecting longitudinal samples from the nasopharynx/throat of 123 hospitalised patients (median age 55 years, 74% male) with COVID-19, to evaluate the effects of remdesivir and corticosteroid treatment on viral RNA levels. The subjects were divided into four groups: those receiving remdesivir (n = 25), betamethasone (n = 41), both (n = 15), or neither (n = 42). Time to viral RNA clearance was analysed using Kaplan-Meier plots, categorical data were analysed using Fisher's exact test, and Kruskal-Wallis for continuous data. Viral RNA decline rate was analysed using a mixed effect model. RESULTS: We found no significant difference in SARS-CoV-2 RNA decline rate or time to SARS-CoV-2 RNA clearance between the groups. Moreover, clinical status at baseline was not correlated with time to viral clearance. CONCLUSIONS: Since SARS-CoV-2 RNA kinetics was not affected by treatment, repeated sampling from the upper respiratory tract cannot be used to evaluate treatment response.

Human Nasal Epithelial Cells (hNECs ) Generated by Air-Liquid Interface (ALI) Culture as a Model System for Studying the Pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2.

The nasal epithelium lining the human upper airway is the primary portal of entry for several respiratory pathogens, including the recently emerged SARS-CoV-2 virus responsible for the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Here, we describe in detail methods for in vitro ALI differentiation of primary cells collected from human donors, to obtain differentiated hNECs. This can serve as a physiologically relevant model to investigate various aspects of host-pathogen responses to SARS-CoV-2 and other emerging respiratory viruses.

In vivo kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 infection and its relationship with a person's infectiousness.

The within-host viral kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 infection and how they relate to a person's infectiousness are not well understood. This limits our ability to quantify the impact of interventions on viral transmission. Here, we develop viral dynamic models of SARS-CoV-2 infection and fit them to data to estimate key within-host parameters such as the infected cell half-life and the within-host reproductive number. We then develop a model linking viral load (VL) to infectiousness and show a person's infectiousness increases sublinearly with VL and that the logarithm of the VL in the upper respiratory tract is a better surrogate of infectiousness than the VL itself. Using data on VL and the predicted infectiousness, we further incorporated data on antigen and RT-PCR tests and compared their usefulness in detecting infection and preventing transmission. We found that RT-PCR tests perform better than antigen tests assuming equal testing frequency; however, more frequent antigen testing may perform equally well with RT-PCR tests at a lower cost but with many more false-negative tests. Overall, our models provide a quantitative framework for inferring the impact of therapeutics and vaccines that lower VL on the infectiousness of individuals and for evaluating rapid testing strategies.

A hybrid PDE-ABM model for viral dynamics with application to SARS-CoV-2 and influenza.

We propose a hybrid partial differential equation-agent-based (PDE-ABM) model to describe the spatio-temporal viral dynamics in a cell population. The virus concentration is considered as a continuous variable and virus movement is modelled by diffusion, while changes in the states of cells (i.e. healthy, infected, dead) are represented by a stochastic ABM. The two subsystems are intertwined: the probability of an agent getting infected in the ABM depends on the local viral concentration, and the source term of viral production in the PDE is determined by the cells that are infected. We develop a computational tool that allows us to study the hybrid system and the generated spatial patterns in detail. We systematically compare the outputs with a classical ODE system of viral dynamics, and find that the ODE model is a good approximation only if the diffusion coefficient is large. We demonstrate that the model is able to predict SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics, and replicate the output of in vitro experiments. Applying the model to influenza as well, we can gain insight into why the outcomes of these two infections are different.

Viral Kinetics of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019.

To determine the relationship between viral kinetics and severity of disease in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, we investigated the viral kinetics and compared the viral loads of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2), stratified by symptoms and severity. We determined the viral kinetics of 100 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 at Chosun University Hospital between February 2020 and May 2021 and analyzed the differences between asymptomatic, symptomatic, and nonsurvivor patients and between patients who died and those who survived. Clinical samples, comprising respiratory specimens (sputum samples and nasopharynx and oropharynx swab samples), were obtained at different time points of hospitalization, at 1, 3 to 5, 7, 10, 14, and 30 days. SARS-CoV-2 was detected using real-time reverse transcription-PCR (RT-PCR). All three groups, asymptomatic, symptomatic, and deceased patients, had higher numbers of viral copies at symptom onset, and the asymptomatic group had lower numbers of viral copies than the symptomatic or nonsurvivor group. Viral RNA release was detected until 30 days after symptom onset. The virus cleared up earlier in asymptomatic patients than in symptomatic and nonsurvivor patients, and it cleared up earlier in mildly affected patients than in severely affected patients. The cycle threshold values tended to be significantly lower in the group receiving steroids than in the nonsteroid group, even in the low-risk group with a pneumonia severity index of less than 90. The viral loads in patients with COVID-19 were significantly different according to disease severity and steroid use. IMPORTANCE In our study, we analyzed the viral kinetics of COVID-19 patients. Our study reveals differences in viral shedding according to the severity of disease in COVID-19 patients. Viral shedding had a longer duration in severely affected patients, and the cyclic threshold values were lower in the group receiving steroids. This study is expected to be helpful in analyzing the trend of the disease course according to steroid use and severity of SARS-CoV-2 disease.

Using in silico viral kinetic models to guide therapeutic strategies during a pandemic: An example in SARS-CoV-2.

AIMS: We propose the use of in silico mathematical models to provide insights that optimize therapeutic interventions designed to effectively treat respiratory infection during a pandemic. A modelling and simulation framework is provided using SARS-CoV-2 as an example, considering applications for both treatment and prophylaxis. METHODS: A target cell-limited model was used to quantify the viral infection dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in a pooled population of 105 infected patients. Parameter estimates from the resulting model were used to simulate and compare the impact of various interventions against meaningful viral load endpoints. RESULTS: Robust parameter estimates were obtained for the basic reproduction number, viral release rate and infected-cell mortality from the infection model. These estimates were informed by the largest dataset currently available for SARS-CoV-2 viral time course. The utility of this model was demonstrated using simulations, which hypothetically introduced inhibitory or stimulatory drug mechanisms at various target sites within the viral life-cycle. We show that early intervention is crucial to achieving therapeutic benefit when monotherapy is administered. In contrast, combination regimens of two or three drugs may provide improved outcomes if treatment is initiated late. The latter is relevant to SARS-CoV-2, where the period between infection and symptom onset is relatively long. CONCLUSIONS: The use of in silico models can provide viral load predictions that can rationalize therapeutic strategies against an emerging viral pathogen.

Viral Load Kinetics of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Hospitalized Individuals With Coronavirus Disease 2019.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) kinetics remain understudied, including the impact of remdesivir. In hospitalized individuals, peak sputum viral load occurred in week 2 of symptoms, whereas viremia peaked within 1 week of symptom-onset, suggesting early systemic seeding of SARS-CoV-2. Remdesivir treatment was associated with faster viral decay.

Antibody and viral RNA kinetics in SARS-CoV2 infected patients admitted to a Romanian University Hospital of Infectious Diseases.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the antibody and viral kinetics in asymptomatic/mild confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections compared to more severe patients. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Retrospective analysis of data obtained from adult patients with a confirmed SARS-CoV2 infection having at least one SARS-CoV-2 pair of specific IgM/IgG tests, admitted in The University Hospital of Infectious Diseases Cluj-Napoca, Romania (28 February to 31 August 2020). The database also included: demographic, clinical, chest X-ray and/or CT scan results, RT-PCR SARS-CoV-2, and dexamethasone treatment. A total of 469 patients were evaluated as "asymptomatic/mild" and "moderate/severe/critical" cases. RESULTS: The median time since confirmation to SARS-CoV-2 PCR negativity was 15 days [95% CI: 13-18] in asymptomatic/mild cases and 17 days [95% CI: 16-21] in moderate/severe ones. The median time to seroconversion for both IgM and IgG was 13 days [95% CI: 13-14] in asymptomatic/mild cases and 11 days [95% CI: 10-13] in moderate/severe ones. For both antibody types, the highest reactivity was significantly associated with more severe presentation (IgM: OR = 10.30, IgG: OR = 7.97). CONCLUSION: Asymptomatic/mild COVID-19 cases had a faster RT-PCR negativity rate compared to moderate/severe/critical patients. IgG and IgM dynamics were almost simultaneous, more robust for IgG in more severe cases, and at one month after confirmation, almost all patients had detectable antibody titers.

Modeling of SARS-CoV-2 Treatment Effects for Informed Drug Repurposing.

Several repurposed drugs are currently under investigation in the fight against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Candidates are often selected solely by their effective concentrations in vitro, an approach that has largely not lived up to expectations in COVID-19. Cell lines used in in vitro experiments are not necessarily representative of lung tissue. Yet, even if the proposed mode of action is indeed true, viral dynamics in vivo, host response, and concentration-time profiles must also be considered. Here we address the latter issue and describe a model of human SARS-CoV-2 viral kinetics with acquired immune response to investigate the dynamic impact of timing and dosing regimens of hydroxychloroquine, lopinavir/ritonavir, ivermectin, artemisinin, and nitazoxanide. We observed greatest benefits when treatments were given immediately at the time of diagnosis. Even interventions with minor antiviral effect may reduce host exposure if timed correctly. Ivermectin seems to be at least partially effective: given on positivity, peak viral load dropped by 0.3-0.6 log units and exposure by 8.8-22.3%. The other drugs had little to no appreciable effect. Given how well previous clinical trial results for hydroxychloroquine and lopinavir/ritonavir are explained by the models presented here, similar strategies should be considered in future drug candidate prioritization efforts.

Epidemiology, clinical spectrum, viral kinetics and impact of COVID-19 in the Asia-Pacific region.

COVID-19 has hit the world by surprise, causing substantial mortality and morbidity since 2020. This narrative review aims to provide an overview of the epidemiology, induced impact, viral kinetics and clinical spectrum of COVID-19 in the Asia-Pacific Region, focusing on regions previously exposed to outbreaks of coronavirus. COVID-19 progressed differently by regions, with some (such as China and Taiwan) featured by one to two epidemic waves and some (such as Hong Kong and South Korea) featured by multiple waves. There has been no consensus on the estimates of important epidemiological time intervals or proportions, such that using them for making inferences should be done with caution. Viral loads of patients with COVID-19 peak in the first week of illness around days 2 to 4 and hence there is very high transmission potential causing community outbreaks. Various strategies such as government-guided and suppress-and-lift strategies, trigger-based/suppression approaches and alert systems have been employed to guide the adoption and easing of control measures. Asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic transmission is a hallmark of COVID-19. Identification and isolation of symptomatic patients alone is not effective in controlling the ongoing outbreaks. However, early, prompt and coordinated enactment predisposed regions to successful disease containment. Mass COVID-19 vaccinations are likely to be the light at the end of the tunnel. There is a need to review what we have learnt in this pandemic and examine how to transfer and improve existing knowledge for ongoing and future epidemics.

SARS-CoV-2 Viability on 16 Common Indoor Surface Finish Materials.

AIM: This study investigated the stability of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on 16 common environmental surface materials. BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 is the causative agent of severe coronavirus disease, a significant public health concern that quickly led to a pandemic. Contamination of environmental surface materials is of concern, with previous studies identifying long-term detection of infectious particles on surfaces. These contaminated surfaces create an increased risk for contact transmission. METHODS: Surface materials were inoculated with 10,000 plaque forming units and samples were collected 4, 8, 12, 24, 30, 48, and 168 hours post infection (hpi). Viral titers were determined for each sample and time point using plaque assays. Nonparametric modeling utilized the Turnbull algorithm for interval-censored data. Maximum likelihood estimates for the survival curve were calculated. Parametric proportional hazards regression models for interval censored data were used to explore survival time across the surface materials. RESULTS: There was a sharp decline in recoverable virus after 4 hpi for all tested surfaces. By 12 hpi, infectious SARS-CoV-2 was recoverable from only four surfaces; and by 30 hr, the virus was recoverable from only one surface. There were differences in survival curves based on the materials although some groups of materials are similar, both statistically and practically. CONCLUSIONS: While very low amounts of infectious SARS-CoV-2 are recoverable over time, there remains a risk of viral transmission by surface contamination in indoor environments. Individuals and institutions must follow appropriate procedures to decontaminate indoor environment and increase diligence for hand hygiene and personal protective equipment.

Mild versus Severe Liver Injury in SARS-CoV-2 Infection.

BACKGROUND: Abnormal liver function has been reported in patients with COVID-19 infection. The aim of our study was to report on the prevalence of liver injury in our cohort, to evaluate the association of mild versus severe liver injury with mortality in COVID-19 patients and to scrutinize the temporal pattern of viral detection and liver injury. METHODS: We present data from a German cohort of 147 SARS-CoV-2 infected patients. The patients were divided into 3 groups according to their liver status during treatment. The first group included patients without elevated alanine aminotransferase or bilirubin, the third group patients meeting the biochemical criteria of acute liver failure (ALF), and the second group all other patients. RESULTS: Liver injury was detected in 75 (50.7%) and 93 (63%) patients by admission and during treatment, respectively. ALF was associated with the male sex, younger age, and higher BMI. Mortality was associated with the presence of ALF (OR = 9.423, 95% CI: 2.410-36.858) in contrast to milder liver injury (OR 1.101, 95% CI: 0.435-2.791). In 30% of patients with mild liver injury and in 50% of ALF patients, peak liver injury was observed at a time point when the virus was no longer detectable in the respiratory tract. CONCLUSION: Mild liver injury was not associated with worse outcome in our cohort, and the pattern of liver injury did not fit well to the theory of SARS-CoV-2 directly causing liver impairment. Instead, severe liver injury in our cohort was associated multiple-organ failure and acute vascular events.

Understanding the immunopathogenesis of COVID-19: Its implication for therapeutic strategy.

Although 80% of individuals infected with the severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) recover without antiviral treatments, the other 20% progress to severe forms of pulmonary disease, suggesting that the host's immune response to the virus could influence the outcome of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). SARS-CoV-2 infects alveolar epithelial type 2 cells expressing angiotensin-converting enzyme 2, and these infected epithelial cells recruit dendritic cells, neutrophils and monocytes /macrophages, leading to the activation of CD4+ and CD8+ T cells. These cells launch an antiviral immune response, but are able to completely suppress viral replication or completely eradicate virus in a limited proportion of infected patients. In other patients, viral suppression is incomplete and the numbers of circulating B and T cells are subsequently reduced by as yet unknown mechanisms. Some patients with sustained viral replication progress to a severe condition called cytokine storm. Although antiviral drug(s) should be considered early in infection to prevent progression, there have been no antiviral therapies proven to be effective for significantly inhibiting the viral replication in vivo and suppressing the progression to cytokine storm. Blocking the action of cytokines with dexamethasone or anti-interleukin-6 could have a pivotal role in treatment of those patients. Therapeutic strategy should therefore be based on viral kinetics and the immunopathology of COVID-19.

In-host Mathematical Modelling of COVID-19 in Humans.

COVID-19 pandemic has underlined the impact of emergent pathogens as a major threat to human health. The development of quantitative approaches to advance comprehension of the current outbreak is urgently needed to tackle this severe disease. Considering different starting times of infection, mathematical models are proposed to represent SARS-CoV-2 dynamics in infected patients. Based on the target cell limited model, the within-host reproductive number for SARS-CoV-2 is consistent with the broad values of human influenza infection. The best model to fit the data was including immune cell response, which suggests a slow immune response peaking between 5 to 10 days post-onset of symptoms. The model with the eclipse phase, time in a latent phase before becoming productively infected cells, was not supported. Interestingly, model simulations predict that SARS-CoV-2 may replicate very slowly in the first days after infection, and viral load could be below detection levels during the first 4 days post infection. A quantitative comprehension of SARS-CoV-2 dynamics and the estimation of standard parameters of viral infections is the key contribution of this pioneering work. These models can serve for future evaluation of control theoretical approaches to tailor new drugs against COVID-19.

Impact of interleukin-6 blockade with tocilizumab on SARS-CoV-2 viral kinetics and antibody responses in patients with COVID-19: A prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The virological and immunological effects of the immunomodulatory drugs used for COVID-19 remain unknown. We evaluated the impact of interleukin (IL)-6 blockade with tocilizumab on SARS-CoV-2 viral kinetics and the antibody response in patients with COVID-19. METHODS: Prospective cohort study in patients admitted with COVID-19. Serial nasopharyngeal and plasma samples were measured for SARS-CoV-2 RNA and S-IgG/N-IgG titers, respectively. FINDINGS: 138 patients with confirmed infection were included; 76 (55%) underwent IL-6 blockade. Median initial SOFA (p = 0•016) and SARS-CoV-2 viral load (p<0•001, Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon test) were significantly higher among anti-IL-6 users. Patients under IL-6 blockade showed delayed viral clearance in the Kaplan-Meier curves (HR 0•35 [95%CI] [0•15-0•81], log-rank p = 0•014), but an adjusted propensity score matching model did not demonstrate a significant relationship of IL-6 blockade with viral clearance (HR 1•63 [0•35-7•7]). Cox regression showed an inverse association between SARS-CoV-2 RNA clearance and the initial viral load (HR 0•35 [0•11-0•89]). Patients under the IL-6 blocker showed shorter median time to seropositivity, higher peak antibody titers, and higher cumulative proportion of seropositivity in the Kaplan Meier curves (HR 3•1 [1•9-5] for S-IgG; and HR 3•0 [1•9-4•9] for N-IgG; log-rank p<0•001 for both). However, no significant differences between groups were found in either S-IgG (HR 1•56 [0•41-6•0]) nor N-IgG (HR 0•96 [0•26-3•5]) responses in an adjusted propensity score analysis. INTERPRETATION: Our results suggest that in patients infected with SARS-CoV-2, IL-6 blockade does not impair the viral specific antibody responses. Although a delayed viral clearance was observed, it was driven by a higher initial viral load. The study supports the safety of this therapy in patients with COVID-19. FUNDING: Instituto de salud Carlos III (Spain).